Gene Witt | Oct 26, 2026
The $800 Billion Question
This is the busiest week of the earnings season. Roughly a third of the S&P 500 reports, including three of the world’s largest companies (Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday after the close, Amazon on Thursday). This will tell us whether the most expensive corporate building program in modern history is starting to pay for itself. Apple follows next Monday. Wednesday’s reports will be announced just hours after the FOMC rate decision, so there is an unusual amount drama being over a few days.
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Gene Witt | Oct 13, 2026
How Much Further can The markets go?
Finance
Wall Street is walking into Q3 unusually confident, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.6% from a year ago, which would be the third straight quarter above 25%. Even more unusual, they raised their Q3 estimates during the quarter rather than cutting them, which is the opposite of the normal pattern. 72 companies guided above expectations, a record. (Guidance is voluntary; ) only 116 companies offered a Q3 forecast, but 62% of them guided higher, versus a five-year average of 40%.)
Yet by one of the oldest valuation measures, the market is as expensive as it has been since the peak of the dot-com bubble. Both statements are true at the same time. This week we lay out evidence on each side, and what history says about how expensive markets eventually resolve
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Gene Witt | Oct 6, 2026
The Demand for Money
Finance, Investments, Market Updates
When everyone wants to borrow at once, lenders can basically name their price. Economists often describe interest rates in simple terms: an interest rate is the price of money. Like any price, it rises when demand outpaces supply. Long-term Treasury yields are now at their highest levels in decades, and a client note from Citadel Securities argues the reason is not mainly inflation fear. The firm points to stronger US growth and competition for capital. To understand that view, it helps to look at the market from the lender's side.
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